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Property Market Report January 2008
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Property Market Report | Agricultural land and property |
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Agricultural land and property Contents Value of equipped land with vacant possession Value of equipped land subject to tenancy Value of unequipped land with vacant possession Comparative values by region- arable farms Comparative values by region- dairy farms Comparative values by region- mixed farms Comparative values by region- hill farms Vacant possession value trends England and WalesThis report covers the six-month period between 1 July 2007 and 31 December 2007.
The trend of sharply rising land values seen in the early part of 2007 was continued in the second half of the year. The same positive factors of strong overseas interest and demand from non-farmers remained features of the market. However, the very substantial increase in commodity prices which began in the first part of 2007 continued into the second half of the year, with prices in excess of £180/ton being achieved for feed wheat. This was a largely unexpected change, as a result of poor worldwide harvests in 2006 and 2007, an increased demand for western style diets in the newly industrialised nations such as China and India and diversion of crops into processing for bio-fuels. This rise in commodity prices has helped to drive the land market upwards and has particularly effected the sentiment of farmer land buyers, who felt more positive about their business profitability than has been the case for a long time. District Valuers are reporting average rises in value for the 2007 year for bare land of 20-25%, which is of a similar order to the conclusions of the other published surveys. At the time of writing in early 2008, the market’s direction seems unchanged and record price levels are being achieved in a number of auction sales. The sentiment in the agricultural land market is therefore very positive, which is in marked contrast to much of the rest of the national property market. The widely publicised problems in the financial services sector, following the revelations of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis leading to the credit crunch in the UK, do not seem to yet have effected the farmland market to any great degree. As a result of rising farm and land values over the last few years, those who own farmland generally have a very strong asset base enabling them to demonstrate to lenders their credit worthiness. The strong capital position of landowner farmers has thus far largely insulated them from the wider shocks experienced in the global property market. There has been a noticeable increase in demand for larger blocks of commercial farmland on the back of increased farm product prices. This results from competition between farmers who wish to expand balanced against the improved confidence in the industry, resulting in a reduced inclination amongst vendors to sell land unless one absolutely has to. The supply of complete commercial farms onto the market continues to be restricted. Coupled with the natural inclination of farmers to hold on to their farms for as long as possible, the increase in product prices has provided the confidence to stay put. The result is that death, divorce or retirement are still the main sale generators. This restricted supply is facing demand, which currently seems to show no signs of any decrease. As well as overseas buyers, non-farmers and UK farmers wishing to expand, fresh demand is now coming from new investment funds attracted into the market by an increase in commodity prices. For example Schroders is reported to have been forced to close its agriculture fund at a value of £3 billions due to overwhelming demand, having generated a return of 42 per cent in 18 months. Having first invested in the commodities themselves, investors are now taking an active interest in the raw material that produces those commodities, namely land. One reason for the strong performance of the UK agricultural land market has been the relatively attractive Capital Tax treatment of the sector. The Government’s proposals to alter the rate of Capital Gains Tax from April 2008 had thrown this element into sharp focus. Towards the end of 2007, there was clear evidence of an increase of supply onto the market, as vendors attempted to achieve a sale at a more advantageous Capital Gains Tax rate before the changes. At the time of writing, this increase in supply continued into the early part of 2008 and particularly, an increase in auction sales was evident, as they offer a speedy conclusion to the transaction process. Some commentators wondered if this increase in supply would affect values, but at the present moment, this does not seem to have occurred. The very high level of demand for agricultural land seems to have easily absorbed this relatively short-term increase in supply generated by the proposed tax changes. There have been some limited instances of houses with small areas of land, principally targeted at residential purchasers, which have failed at auction. These, however, tended to have been those in poorer locations, or poorer condition and as yet, a widespread effect on the residential part of the farmland market due to the credit crunch does not seem to have become evident. It is also the case that there remains a substantial body of potential purchasers in the market who do not require to borrow the purchase money. Funds from inherited wealth, other business profits or sales, or development land sales are still evident in the system and for purchasers in such strong capital positions, the problems in the global finance markets are of less concern. In the short term at least, there appears to be little indication that the direction of the market is likely to change. Farms and farmland remain in strong demand, whilst supply remains well below that level of demand. Many years of consolidation in the industry resulting in farms getting larger has meant that the supply of land coming onto the market is on a consistent reducing trend. The continual loss of agricultural land to development further reinforces this position. However, in the medium to longer term, the problems in the credit market will possibly begin to affect the agricultural land market. If the residential development land market dries up, then the demand from vendors of such land for agricultural land to replace it will correspondingly reduce. A sustained downturn in the residential market will also inevitably feed through into smaller farms hitherto principally targeted at residential purchasers. However, unless a major international financial dislocation occurs, the market would appear well placed to ride any downturn in the residential or commercial markets. Furthermore, if the economy does become more unsettled, agricultural land and farms always have a substantial attraction to investors, resulting from their basic security as a capital asset. Their resistance to inflation and their tangible nature, compared to the complex financial instruments whose defects caused the credit crunch, should ensure they remain in strong demand. North WestIn Cumbria prices realised for whole farms sold at auction have significantly exceeded expectations. At recent auctions, there has been a huge amount of interest, from both local farmers and outside investors, particularly from Northern Ireland. This represents further evidence of a continued optimism in the farming industry, and a buoyant agricultural property market, in spite of the problems with livestock disease outbreaks and rising feed costs. There is very strong demand for blocks of accommodation land with prices regularly achieving £5,500 an acre. In Lancashire more farms have come on to the market in recent months with strong demand from both local and overseas buyers (predominantly Irish), parcels of land have also attracted high levels of interest with values heading upwards. Agents report that any land marketed sells well, often exceeding guide prices, and demand remains stronger than ever. The requirement for rural residences with land still drives prices out of the reach of the majority, but does not show much signs of slowing as the demand appears constant. As always the smaller parcels of land attract a premium with the equestrian market ensuring this remains the case. In Cheshire farmland prices continue to rise with strong demand from both the farming and non-farming sectors driving up values. Small parcels of land in particular are commanding high prices with buyers paying up to £15,000 per acre. However, sales of good dairy farms are still few and far between. One private sale widely reported in the press was the sale of The Tabley Estate, Knutsford, by Manchester University to the Crown Estate, for a figure understood to be in excess of £35million. The sale, which excluded the estates Grade 1 listed mansion and 25 acres, comprised some 3600 acres covering 18 tenanted farms, 18 farmland lettings subject to a mixture of traditional and farm business tenancies, 52 residential properties and 13 commercial leases including the Cheshire showground. The rent roll is in the region of £0.5 million giving a yield of 1.5%. Auction Sales include:
The positive feeling in the market remains with short supply and strong demand from farmers, investors, and lifestyle buyers pushing prices up. The individual farmers share of the purchases appears to have increased in 2007. The portfolio of tenanted farms being marketed by the Northumberland Estates are all understood to be under offer with further details awaited. There have been few sporting estates marketed in recent times despite strong demand. However, the Scrainwood Estate in Northumberland, last sold in 2004, is back on the market with a guide price of £4.25m for the 1066.99 acre holding which includes a house and pair of cottages. In Co Durham Bowes Moor is believed to have been sold at a premium price pre marketing. The Chancellor's announcement of the abolition of taper relief and new rate of CGT is likely to result in additional sales over the early part of 2008 as investors look to cash in before the April deadline.
Yorkshire and HumbersideThis season’s increase in cereal prices has increased optimism within the arable sector, despite some cereals having been sold forward. Increased feed costs will have an effect on the livestock sector although there has been an upturn in the dairy sector due to the improvement in milk price. Increased feed prices for 2008 may slow this process to some extent. The pig industry has suffered an unhealthy decline over the last six months. Poor cereal harvests in other parts of the world have contributed to the current situation and it is therefore anticipated that the existing level of cereal prices will be maintained in 2008. The increased optimism from UK cereal growers is likely to lead to increased demand for land in the foreseeable future. This is supported by the fact that more complete units are coming to the market. There is still an under supply and this will underpin the market. The taxation benefits of owning agricultural land will continue to encourage non - farming money into the market and lifestyle buyers are still keen purchasers. Values have continued to rise over the period of this report and the increase in complete units coming onto the market is a good indicator of the current level of optimism. Auction sales include:
The East Midlands has continued to experience a buoyant market for farmland, with values exceeding most peoples’ expectations and guide prices being breached in many sales. In this mixed farming area, there has been a wide variation in farming fortunes over the reporting period. Whilst stock farming has been struggling with TB, Avian Flu, Bluetongue, Foot & Mouth restrictions and depressed prices, arable farmers have seen grain and oilseed rape prices increase rapidly but, of course, this has also had a detrimental affect on feed prices for livestock farmers. However, for many years, the land market has not seen a direct correlation between farming income and land prices, because external influences have affected values beyond pure returns from farming. In this period, these influences have again been very evident in the form of so called ‘lifestyle purchasers’, roll-over income from development gains, equestrian activities and proceeds from the sale of other businesses being reinvested in farmland. In the more commercial farming areas in the region, there is also significant investment activity from foreign buyers taking advantage of the still relatively ‘cheap’ UK land prices. Nevertheless, there has still been some buying of land by working farmers, who can take advantage of acquiring nearby land to achieve a greater spread of fixed costs. They are also aware that the opportunity of purchasing such land may not reappear in their lifetimes, so every effort is being made to fund the purchase, even though they may be competing in the market with the above mentioned non-farming buyers. In the investment market, there has been the first talk of rent increases for some time. The ability to increase the rent will of course depend upon the type of farming carried on, as there may be some scope for increases in arable areas, but there will certainly be some resistance on stock farms, where incomes have been badly hit. Needless to say, there has also been some evidence of pastureland being ploughed up for growing arable crops, including bio-fuels, and there have been other moves towards using as much land as possible to grow corn and oilseed rape, including the removal of the obligatory set-aside requirement in 2008. The outlook for land prices remains relatively favourable for vendors, as there is still a shortage of land coming to the market in this area, with unsatisfied demand still giving rise to strong prices. However, as the residential market cools down, there may be a ‘knock-on’ effect on values of equipped farms but, as sales of these properties are still a comparative rarity in the market, they should still maintain their current levels of value. There are also the imminent changes to Capital Gains tax to consider, which may either have the effect of bringing more land to the market before April 2008 to avoid the proposed 18% rate. Overall, the tax benefits of owning farmland remain relatively favourable.
The following sales illustrate the auction prices achieved over the reporting period:-
Again a busy period in the region's farmland market, with clear evidence of significant rises in value. Land remains keenly sought after with almost all properties offered on the market meeting strong demand. Auction and private treaty sales were characterised by guide prices regularly being exceeded, substantially so in some cases. Strong demand from non-farming purchasers for smaller well-located blocks of land continues, although the influence of the problems in the financial services sector began to make itself felt in the latter part of the report period. Several houses with small areas of land did fail at auction, but the overall picture of the West Midlands market was very positive. Few entire commercial farms went to auction, although a number of large units were sold by private treaty at around or above their guide prices. Farmer sentiment has definitely improved on the back of increased combinable crop prices, and farmers seeking to increase their land holdings are bidding strongly. They still however, have been facing stiff competition from overseas, mainly Irish buyers and non-farmers. Towards the end of the report period the prospect of the proposed changes to the Capital Gains Tax rate began to have an effect. More land and whole farms came on to the market than is usual in the late autumn and winter. The next report period will show if this increase in supply will act to moderate the rising tone of the market. Current indications are that demand is so strong that prices look very likely to continue on their upward path. Farms selling for over £1.75m did not used to be common, but now sales approaching £2m appear to be happening more frequently. Auction sales include:
In Cambridgeshire improving land prices appear to have encouraged vendors to bring property to the market with a surge of land and farms for sale in the last year. This includes land put on the market by institutions taking the opportunity, often after buying out their tenants, to sell off their smaller farms with a view to rationalising their holdings. Farms are selling quickly and prices are continuing to rise strongly. A feature, at least in the Fens, of the market has been the number of farms selling to foreign buyers – in particular from Ireland and Denmark – who appear to be buying mainly as an investment, rather than to farm directly themselves, as they perceive that good quality land here is very cheap in comparison to land in their home countries. These buyers are mainly interested in blocks of commercial farmland of over say 300 acres, and this has resulted in the unusual situation where such blocks are often selling for significantly higher prices per acre than smaller blocks. Not withstanding this, there appears to be a feverish “grab for land” going on for almost all land coming on the market now, with neighbouring farmers competing very aggressively where there are several looking to expand. As well as publicly marketed land, much is also being sold quietly and privately, as consolidation of holdings continues apace in the arable sector. In Suffolk and North Essex there is considerable activity in the market spurred on by improved commodity prices, farmer confidence and possible reaction to the proposed CGT changes. However the market appears very bitty. As noted in Cambridgeshire some small parcels of land are making less than more significant blocks. In mid Essex 3 significant farms totalling 4,624 acres are close to being sold around the guide price of £27 million to £30 million. In the Braintree area 68 acres of attractive arable land let under an 86 Act tenancy to a Limited Company sold for around 62.5% of VP value. The tenant Company was the third under-bidder. There have been few auction sales of significant blocks of agricultural land. Where attractive houses have in the past been sold with significant parcels of land to lifestyle purchasers, it is suggested that such sales incorporate much smaller blocks, with the surplus land finding ready purchasers from the local farming community. Whilst commodity prices are looking very healthy, input costs – fertilizers, seed etc are also subject to similar price hikes from greater demand. A similar picture applies across the rest of the region with demand and values rising as locations get closer to London.
Auction sales include:
In Kent the last 6 months has seen a steady supply of offerings of bare land coming to the market including about 116.08 acres GII arable at Aylesford in 2 lots guided by private treaty in the overall range £3,230 to £3,877/acre, 103 acres adjoining the river at Yalding by private treaty, 27 acres GI marsh pasture near Sandwich sold at auction for £3,555/acre, and about 78 acres GIII arable, set aside and woods near Tenterden guided in the range £2,885 to £3,205/acre and sold prior to auction. Ready buyers have been found in all cases. Offers in excess of the range £1,510,000 to £1,610,000 (£6,400 to £6,800/acre) have been sought for Odiam Farm, Tenterden with GII listed house, farm buildings and a total of 236.42 acres in four lots, or £1.75m as a whole. It is understood that an offer for the whole in the region of the guide has been accepted. A let arable and grass farm, Broadlees Farm, Dover, has been marketed on behalf of Defence Estates seeking offers in excess of £500,000 (£1,608/acre) for a 1960s Colt bungalow, range of farm buildings and in all about 311 acres let on a traditional Agricultural Holdings Act tenancy at a rent of £12,500/annum (£40.19/acre). It is understood that an offer has been accepted. Private treaty and informal tender remain the preferred methods of sale to provide maximum flexibility, particularly with regard to lotting. Rural Property auctions have shown a strong demand for smaller parcels of bare agricultural land up to £ 18,000 per acre and deciduous woodland ( 30 + acres ) to £ 6,500 per acre. Similar conditions are seen across the rest of the region with demand and values rising as locations get closer to London. The Buckinghamshire auction detailed below shows the level of demand for relatively large blocks of land, resulting in values of over £5,000 per acre being acheived. Auctions sales include:
The second half of 2007 has seen the continued significant growth in land values experienced in the first half the year. The lack of supply and the ever growing number of potential purchasers continues to fuel prices for all types of land to all purchasers. Farmers and non farming buyers are equally active especially with the significant increase in cereal and milk prices and with the upturn in future farming fortunes. Agents report a significant increase in demand for the larger commercial farms in excess of 400 acres, of which more have appeared on the market publicly than previously. Sales of which when analysed often leave the land element in excess of £5,000 per acre at similar levels to the sales of large blocks of bare land. The smaller blocks of land in sought after areas still continue to give surprising results. An agent reports on a notable sale of a 600 acre Somerset arable farm with farmhouse and grain storage with a guide price in excess £3m had over 30 viewings sold considerably in excess of the guide, and placed the land element in excess of £5,500 per acre, the land would not be described as the best land in Somerset only suitable for cereal growing. Two further farms in Somerset and Dorset both with guides excess £4,000,000 have met strong demand and attracted offers in excess of guides. Despite the problems which developed in the wider property world there appear to be a number of purchasers in the market ready and able to spend £4m or more on a farm in the region. Auctions remain a popular and well supported selling method in the region.
Auction results include:-
The agricultural land market in Wales continues to be very strong. Farmland has been meeting high demand in all areas, with the improved confidence in farming prospects showing up in increased land values . Good quality bare land has been making up to and over £5,000 per acre for significant sized blocks, which is a substantial increase over the position 12 months ago. Although non-farming interest remains widespread, farmers appear more prepared to compete to secure land, especially where it is close to existing holdings and offers the opportunity to maximise economies of scale. Despite the rise in feed costs and problems with Bluetongue and Foot and Mouth outbreaks, interest remains keen in stock farms, and demand considerably exceeded the supply of these farms which came onto the market. Although relatively few Welsh farmers are in a position to benefit from the much improved prices for arable crops, overall they still appeared more confident in the future when making land buying decisions. Small blocks of land close to towns and villages remain keenly sought after particularly by buyers for equestrian purposes. A few former farmhouses with small parcels of land, targeted at the residential buyer failed to sell at auction, but as a whole the market was very positive over the report period. Auction sales include.
Sales of tenanted farms 2007 The market for Land and farms let on 1986 Agricultural Holdings Act tenancies continues to be strongly active. In the Braintree area 68 acres of attractive arable land let under an 86 Act tenancy to a Limited Company sold for around 62.5% of VP value. The tenant Company was the third under-bidder. Several substantial let arable farms were offered for sale in Cambridgeshire by institutional landlords. Several good sized farms and blocks of land have been offered to the market by private treaty and tender in the last 6 months, in Cumbria, Cornwall, Kent, Northants and Powys. Where asking prices are quoted they show yields from 1.05 to 2.5%. The higher yield property had less residential appeal with the residence being a timber bungalow. An opportunity to purchase a farm let on a company tenancy near Peterborough is offered by the sale of a 338 acre arable unit at Thorney. The guide price of £700,000 shows a yield of 3.14%. The farm has a 5 bedroom period house.
Agricultural Holdings Act 1986 Tenancies The long period of inactivity in the rental market for holdings let on 1986 Act terms has finally come to an end. For up to 10 years many landlords had accepted, due to a sustained period of poor farming product prices, that increases in farm rents could not be sustained. Whilst some tenants had managed to secure rent reductions, many did not, often due to the recognition that the residential element in farm lettings on 1986 Act terms offered a substantial benefit compared to residential tenancy rents. The increase in product prices, particularly for combinable crops, has caused agents acting for landowners to serve notices requiring rent reviews, and the service of notices gathered pace through 2007. The expectation is this trend will continue through 2008, and there will be few holdings where the rent will not have been subject to an attempt to agree an increase. Tenant's organisations make the point that rent increases should not be seen as a foregone conclusion. Even the bouyant arable sector has not had an unbroken run of good news in 2007. Many farmers forward sold their crops at prices well below the high spot levels subsequently achieved. Fertilizer costs have risen sharply, as have fuel costs. The position in the livestock sector, which has had to deal with increased feed costs on the back of increased cereal prices, is weaker and it is thought significantly fewer notices have been sevred on such farms. Those acting for landowners however, make the equally valid point that a cycle of cycle of reducing rents and falling capital investment provides neither party any benefit in the long term. Interesting discussions will ensue where tenants have significantly diversified into other non-farming activities or gone part-time. The results of review negotiations resulting from notices served in 2007 will no doubt be one of the talking points of the agricultural land market in 2008. Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995, Farm Business Tenancies (FBTs) Farm Business Tenancy rents are reported to continue to rise, particularly in the commercial arable areas of the East. Average figures approaching £100/acre are now becoming common, with some reports of up to £200/acre for cereal land rents where competition is stiff. The sudden interest of commercial investors in soft commodities caused by sharply rising world prices, is evidence of how fashionable this sector has now become. As land is the basic foundation of the whole process, further rent rises appear inevitable. The continued strong rise in capital values has to be mirrored in rent increases, until world production can expand to get demand back in more of a balance with supply. Milk Quota Sales and Leasing (2007-2008 Season) Milk prices continued their upward path during the report period, but previous rationalisation in the industry meant that milk quota prices did not follow. There is plenty of quota available, and the latest production figures show little likelihood of any levy being payable. Milk quota prices have drifted back from 2p per litre for sale to around 1.5p per litre at the end of 2007. Leasing prices have fallen from around 0.2p per litre to 0.1p per litre at the end of 2007. Defra has published a consultation document to look at the European Commission's proposals to add 2 per cent to milk quotas from 1st April 2008. Milk quota is due to be abolished in 2015. This proposal was scheduled to be discussed at the Agriculture Council on 21/22 January. The policy reason for milk quota is largely now thought to have gone, and they are seen to be preventing EU farmers from responding to increasing demand. Any expansion of quota will reduce values even further.
SINGLE FARM PAYMENT ENTITLEMENT SALES The market in trading single payment entitlement in England has been quiet during the second half of 2007. The nature of the introduction of the single payment scheme has resulted in a buyer’s market. As a rule there is more payment entitlement available than there is demand to purchase it and therefore values are low. The English system was structured on an area basis, and when introduced in 2005 basically few landowners and occupiers failed to claim entitlement. There is also a continual leakage of land away from agricultural use for development estimated to be some 50,000 to 70,000 acres a year. As a result there is readly a supply of entitlements without land available for sale, which acts to hold values down. Values are usually expressed as a multiplier of the annual earnings of an entitlement. The current English value is around 1.2 times annual earnings. Significant changes to the scheme in 2008 will be the abolition of the fruit, vegetable and potato authorisations and the decision of the EU Agriculture Council to set a 0% rate of compulsory set aside for the 2008 scheme year. Both these decisions will remove some complexity from the market but are not likely to substantially increase the basic value of entitlement in England. The position in Wales and Scotland is different in that the payment is based upon a wholly historic system. In Wales value multipliers of between 1.5 and 2 times earnings have been seen. There is also a more developed auction market in Wales for entitlements, although those with a lower annual payment rate prove harder to sell. The new position is similar in Scotland where the basis of payment is again historic one. Entitlements can auction for up to a multiplier of three times the entitlement's annual earnings. Another feature of Scottish trading is that electronic internet auctions are carried out with up to sixty people logged on at entitlement sales. The supply of farms and land has decreased in recent months from what was already a low level. Residential values have generally levelled off although there is still high interest from lifestyle buyers. Land prices are buoyant on the back of rising cereal and milk prices but it is not yet clear at what level the market will stabilise with a wide range of rates per acre being obtained for what appears to be similar land. A well-equipped arable unit, with a good proportion of Class 1 land, near Carnoustie is understood to have sold for an overall rate of £8,000/acre. An area of bare arable land in Angus is reputed to have sold for a rate in excess of £5,000 per acre and this rate has also been achieved in East Lothian for non-prime land. Current indications are that this increasing trend will continue even though feed prices to beef and dairy producers have increased and these additional costs could put a brake on the value of stock farms. The closing of the gap between Scottish and Irish land values has led to an increased percentage of successful Scottish buyers although the Irish together with English and Danish bidders usually feature in any farms being offered for sale. In the North of Scotland agricultural and estate values are well supported by substantial amounts of new money chasing amenity, sporting and residential features as well as commercial agricultural ones. Demand for crofts remains high and the Scottish Government is giving communities the chance to bid to buy national forest land to create new crofts or manage woodland for communal benefit, providing additional opportunities for sustainable and affordable housing, woodfuel and woodland management. This initiative is being taken forward by the Crofters Commission and the Forestry Commission who hope that the creation of woodland crofts would link housing, local livelihoods and woodland management. Key features of any woodland croft model would include affordable and sustainable housing, biomass for heat, retention of land and housing by the community, and broad based community involvement and support. Conversely, the Croft House Grant Scheme funding has been cut despite generally being considered as successful in helping sustain the fragile crofting communities.
Value of equipped land with vacant possession as at 1 January 2008 The table below shows average values for different types of equipped land in each region with values expressed in terms of £s per acre and per hectare. Dairy farm values exclude the value of milk quota. Where there is no entry the land type is not typical within the area.
Value of equipped land subject to tenancy as at 1 January 2008
Value of unequipped land with vacant possession as at 1 January 2008 The table below shows average values for different types of bare land in each region with values expressed in terms of £s per acre and per hectare. Dairy farm values exclude the value of milk quota. Where there is no entry the land type is not typical within the area.
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